After long delay, Ontario MDs are offered a 12% raise

Five and a half months late, a proposed contract has finally emerged from the negotiations between the government of Ontario and the province's doctors.

According to a report by the Canadian Press today, the new contract would give Ontario's physicians a 12.25% raise over the next four years, plus an additional $350 million in special program funding.

The contract, however, must still be approved by the Ontario Medical Association's membership in an October 18 vote, and if past experience is any guide then there is no guarantee the OMA's members will approve the deal. During the last set of negotiations, in 2004 and 2005, doctors refused to endorse the first contract proposed by the government; the process to agree on a revised deal became heated and soured many Ontario physicians on then-Health Minister George Smitherman, who was transferred to the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure in June.

Though the negotiations leading to today's proposal dragged on over a long period of time -- the previous contract expired on March 31 -- they haven't been as heated as 2004/2005 negotiations. The CP article notes that an OMA source called the process difficult and said the government took a "very tough stance."

UPDATE, 4pm: The Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care has issued their press release on the tentative agreement. Health Minister David Caplan is quoted as saying: "This agreement will allow us to continue moving forward by focusing on our top priorities: improving access to family care and reducing wait times."

UPDATE, 5pm: A 12.25% raise over four years may sound generous, but there's another way of looking at that figure. The average annual raise promised in the proposed contract amounts to 3.0625%. Compare that to the Canadian inflation rate as reported by Statistics Canada for the last two months data are available: a 3.1% inflation rate in June 2008, and a 3.4% inflation rate in July 2008. The nation's inflation rate is variable, of course, but consider the fact that over the last four years Canada's average inflation rate has been 2.48% -- not far from the 3.0625% raise proposed today. If one assumes that inflation rates over the next four years -- the term of the new Ontario agreement -- remain as they have been over the past four, then Ontario doctors will be getting an inflation-adjusted pay hike of just 0.5825%.

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