The number of cancer cases in Fort Chipewyan, Alberta, is unusually high, found a government-commissioned study carried out by researchers from the Alberta Cancer Board released this month.
But the study was not able to identify what was responsible for the increased rates, much to the frustration of the residents of the town -- a small First Nations community downriver from the oilsands developments (pictured right).
Fort Chip residents, as well as its former family physician, Dr John O'Connor, have long insisted that toxic run-off from the oilsands projects had contaminated the town's water supply and caused a spike in cancer rates. Dr O'Connor reported six cases of cholangiocarcinoma, a type of bile duct cancer, but the Cancer Board's report could confirm only two cases of the diease. As a result of Dr O'Connor's public warning about what he believed at the time to be the town's increased rate of cholangiocarcinomas, the federal Ministry of Health filed a complaint with Alberta's medical regulatory body accusing Dr O'Connor of acting unprofessionally and inciting undue alarm.
So now that the Alberta Cancer Board study has confirmed there is indeed an unusually high cancer rate (albeit not cholangiocarcinomas) is Dr O'Connor vindicated? Not entirely.
The (PDF) suggested several possible causes:
- Chance. "Any search for a cancer cluster is likely to find some aggregation of cases in a geographic location or over a period of time, even if there is no causal explanation... The selection of the study area and the calendar time period was strongly influenced by the community physician’s report of an increase in cancer cases since 2000. As a result, our analysis would have an increased probability of finding a higher than expected number of cancer cases in the community as a result of a phenomenon termed the 'Texas-sharp shooter fallacy'. This is named for the anecdotal Texan who fired his gun randomly at the side of a barn, then drew a target around the spot where most of the bullet holes clustered and claimed to be a sharpshooter."
- Increased detection. "Dr. O’Connor, the community physician who initially raised concern about the possible excess in cancer risk began working in Fort Chipewyan in 2000. Since then, there have been more visits by the community physician, increasing from approximately one visit in two months to every other week... It is possible that previous cases of cancer might not have been detected before the patient moved from the area or died from other causes, or that deaths from cancer might have been attributed to other causes.
- Increased risk. Besides aberrations in demographics, which the researchers accounted for already in their initial calculation of the expected cancer rate, "[t]here are many other factors, however, that can also contribute to variations in risk, such as socio-economic factors, lifestyle, nutrition, as well as factors related to occupational and environmental exposure. These factors may contribute to the differences in cancer incidence found between Fort Chipewyan and the rest of Alberta, but we were not able to measure them in the current study."
The study showed a rise in cancer incidence from 2000-2006 as compared to the first five years of the study, leading them to conclude that their findings "warrant closer monitoring of cancer occurrences in Fort Chipewyan in the coming years."
"The overall findings show there's no cause for alarm, but they do warrant further investigation," Dr Tony Fields, vice-president of the Cancer Corridor, Alberta Health Services, to the Edmonton
Sun. "This is 51 cases of cancer over 12 years. It's not huge."
Dr O'Connor, however, disagreed that the study is no cause for alarm. "If I were living in Fort Chip I'd be very alarmed," he .
George Poitras, of the Mikisew Cree First Nation in Fort Chipewyan, , "It's about time that we're getting these results confirming what we've been saying all along."
But Chief Roxanne Marcel wasn't so sanguine. "The study still leaves a lot of questions for us," she the Edmonton
Sun. Obviously they didn't conduct a thorough, really good study."
Dr Fields maintains the study was fine. "We are confident the study is sound,” he . “Seldom does a scientific study answer all our questions. Instead, research often points us to where we need to look next. Working with the community we will take those next steps to finding answers.”
Other aboriginal health advocates they too were frustrated by the report's failure to identify a cause for the increased cancer rates.
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